Local climate change forecast difficult to predict

By Emmalie Vance
Everyone wants answers to the questions surrounding climate change: Is it real? What are the signs? How fast is the earth’s climate changing and how does it affect me? Scientists are working towards solid answers to these questions but at the moment, seeing into the future of our planet is not as easy as it sounds.
University Professor of Environmental Systems Engineering and Director of the Center for Environmental Systems Engineering at Syracuse University, Dr. Charles Driscoll, has recently taken an interest in climate change in Adirondack State Park. A presentation he gave in mid-Oct. displayed the findings of three climate change models in a Power Point presentation. The three models included one the most sensitive to carbon dioxide (Hadley), the one least sensitive (PCM) and a model that falls somewhere in the middle (GFDL). Each of these three scientific models also displayed two different scenarios: one in which there are low CO2 concentrations and one in which these levels are high. Between these three models and their two extreme scenarios, they predicted a rise in average temperature and precipitation beginning around the years 2020 and 2030.
According to Driscoll, the carbon dioxide levels used by each of these models “are estimates to bracket what we think the increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide will be in about 100 years. We don’t really know; they’re based on social and economic predictions.”
Dr. Ken Adams, SUNY distinguished teaching professor of environmental science, believes that the publicity of these findings have the potential to falsely advertise. The models that are used generally produce the results of global climate change or the results of a very large area such as North America. Climate, which includes temperature, precipitation, wind, etc., is different around the world because of changes in elevation, latitude, longitude and a number of other factors. If the models predict a five-degree increase in temperature in the next 20 years, that is only a global average and should not be assumed true for a small region such as the Adirondacks.
“I think people often overestimate the capabilities of models to predict very specific and local conditions,” Adams said. “It turns into a misuse of science.”
Adirondack Council Legislative Director Scott Lorey is involved in numerous programs whose goals are to help slow the effects of global climate change and global warming. One of the programs buys tons of carbon form local power plant auctions for the purpose of taking it off the market and safely retiring it so it will never be added to the atmosphere.
“Climate change is definitely one of the top three issues in the Adirondacks,” Lorey said. “We’re very fearful that over the next 50-80 years that if things don’t start turning around, we’re going to see more invasive species, more pollutants and so forth. We’re trying to prevent catastrophic things before they happen.”
New York Department of Environmental Conservation Region 5 Director Elizabeth (Betsy) Lowe said, “In general, the one thing that’s kind of interesting about climate change is that even if you don’t completely believe what the scientists say, the measures related to energy efficiency, clean energy and that sort of thing are all good for the environment and good for the economy, too. It’s one of those topics that have benefits all the way around.”